When I first wrote this post, I held off publishing it because at the time, I couldn’t quickly verify the central data point. Sometimes a small piece of information will lodge itself down deep, where I’m not quite fully aware it’s there. Over time it will quietly ferment until it bubbles up, ready for a full rise. Such was the case with this.

I still don’t know my original source for the 50% number (might have been here or here). I didn’t want to spread misinformation (there’s enough of that already), but in retrospect maybe I shouldn’t have waited so long to publish. In recent days the mayor of New York has finally said it out loud, and this article and this article make it clear how inevitably it is barreling across the Hudson.

Ready or not. So let’s choose ready.

March 20 -

I woke up before my alarm clock with the realization of what the situation actually might be.

This virus may infect 50% of the population.

Since my family is all in good health, and my husband’s salary (even when he works from home) is enough to pay all the bills and we have good health insurance and my elderly parents have already passed away, I initially considered this from a cool distance. Here’s what I first thought when I heard that statistic:

That’s going to be really, really bad. All those poor people. Hospitals will be overrun. This will last awhile. People will lose their jobs. Schools will probably remain closed for months. We’ll be riding this out at home for awhile. People will need help. I wonder if there’s anything I/my family/my business could do to help those people.

This morning, lying quietly in the dark before my alarm went off, I realized:

That means half of everyone will be sick. Half of all people. Viruses don’t care which half. That means you could flip a coin and half of the people in any room, in any home, in any business will be sick. That means half the people I know. Half the people I love. Half the people in my business. Half the families on my street. Half the people in my family. That means that in my house, 2 of the 4 of us could get sick.

This is scary. But as I think this through, I notice that I’m not filled with dread. I’m focused. This realization has concentrated my thinking.

Now, I’m thinking through scenarios:

Statistically speaking, it is unlikely no one in this family will get sick. So statistically speaking, it is likely that someone in this family will get sick.

If one of us gets sick, it will be very difficult to prevent the others getting sick. If one person gets sick, the virus is more likely to infect the people near them.

So the people near them have a higher risk than the people who are not near them. So that means it’s not 50% for everyone. It’s 50% on average, overall. But it’s actually higher for some. And lower for others.

It’s higher for people who are exposed.

Duh.

And so now, the strategy becomes even more clear:

Step 1: Keep the virus out of the house.

Step 2: If the virus gets in, keep it from infecting the people.

Step 3: If the virus infects someone, keep it from infecting the others.

(Again, duh.)

But I don’t know if my kids quite understand this. In these terms. I don’t think my husband has wrapped his head around this, actually. We’re all at home, and we’re handwashing more than usual, and they’ve pretty much stopped rolling their eyes about it. But I can feel everyone relaxing a bit. Nothing bad is happening to us. Right now. So far. We’re fine.

We don’t want to let our guard down. But here’s what we also don’t want: we don’t want to live in fear. Fear is not useful when it comes time to make decisions. It’s very useful at getting people’s attention. But when it comes time to make decisions, to choose the best course of action, I much prefer if it could just leave the room so we can all think more clearly.

What we need, what my family needs, right now, is not fear. What we need is focus. Laser focus on Step 1, keeping the virus out of the house. We stay home, we stay distant. And on Step 2, killing it if it sneaks in (handwashing and the like), to keep it from infecting the people. And hopefully we don’t get to Step 3.

So, how to harness everyone’s focus? I need to think about this. We need to be in lockstep. Maybe another family meeting.

Lunch on Day 5: Gussied-Up Instant Ramen

Like everyone else, I ate boatloads of instant ramen in college. And, also like everyone else, our pantry is stocked with plenty of it right now. When we make it, we like to add whatever extra stuff we have in the house, so it’s a little closer to the real thing.

Like:

Jammy egg: You can start this before you start the ramen, so they’re both ready at about the same time. I’ve been experimenting with this, and I won’t give you a firm recipe because it really varies depending on how hot and fast your stove is. But my approach is to start with the eggs submerged in a pan of cold water, then bring them to a boil with the lid on, turn the heat down a smidge to prevent the shell from cracking, and let them boil for 3 minutes. When time is up, I transfer the eggs to a bowl filled with cold water and ice cubes to stop the cooking. After a couple of minutes, carefully crack the shells, peel them and slice them in half. Add them to each bowl just before the scallions and herbs (see below).

Greens: Bok choy, spinach, chard, kale, etc. are all great. Pretty much anything but collards will work. Cooking time depends on the greens. Spinach goes in after the noodles are done, before the seasonings. Bok choy or chard go in at the same time as the noodles. Kale would go in a few minutes before the noodles. Whatever you’re using, tear them into smallish pieces.

Fish sauce: An umami flavor bomb. After stirring in the seasoning packet, sprinkle fish sauce in to taste.

Hot sauce: Sriracha, gochujang or another Asian hot chile paste are all excellent. Add to taste.

Scallions and herbs: Throw these into the finished dish, just before serving. The scallions deliver a little onion punch and crunch, and the herbs are there for a fresh flavor contrast. Cilantro and basil are both great herb options.

(PS - If you’re new around here, welcome! Adventure Kitchen is a local, small-batch maker of original spice blends and prepared foods, and I’m the founder and chief creator. Separately, I send a weekly email with recipes and cooking suggestions. If you’d like to follow along with that, you can sign up on this page. And if you’d like to support my small business, you can buy our spices online. We ship everywhere of course, and we deliver locally for free!)